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Chinese President Xi Jinping and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo: AP/Ng Han Guan
iven Malacañang's recent actions, Filipinos now wonder whether President Rodrigo Duterte is finally distancing himself from his Beijing benefactors and charting an independent course for his country. His detractors point out that Duterte won the 2016 presidential election, despite his being the underdog, because there was significant cyber interference from China. His supporters, however, insist that Duterte won fair and square, with no help from Beijing or the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Even if one assumes the latter to be the case, Duterte clearly moved closer to China soon after taking office. He distanced himself from the West—including the United States and said that he preferred Russia and China as allies. He even agreed not to bring up the UN-sanctioned Arbitral Tribunal's ruling that invalidated China's nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea.
Duterte had hoped that his obsequious behavior towards Beijing would translate into significant Chinese investments for his "build-build-build" development program. When Chinese investments failed to materialize, Duterte must have realized that he was on the losing end of a non-reciprocal relationship.
The question is whether Duterte can now extricate himself from China, should he want to do so. China appears to have significantly enmeshed itself in the Philippines during Duterte's almost four years in office. There are considerably more Chinese nationals in the country today than there were when Duterte took office. Also, Chinese telecommunication equipment from suppliers like Huawei and ZTE now blanket the entire country. Secure communications by the Philippine government and the military might already be compromised.
Despite Duterte's newfound independence, and what might be a sincere desire by some in his Cabinet and his military to chart a separate course, the president might find it difficult to decouple from China. He may soon realize that what he thought was a short fling with the CCP has turned into a Faustian bargain he can never walk away from. Published 10/22/2020
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