President Rodrigo Duterte with an assault rifle, in a speech to members of the Philippine National Police. Photo: wsj/dondi tawatao/reuters ill Philippine President RodrigoDuterte run for the vice presidency in 2022? Will he cancel the elections instead? Or might he find himself out of office and out of power when his term ends next year? These are serious questions with grave consequences for the president. Unlike recently deceased former President Noynoy Aquino, who simply stepped down from office and casually walked into retirement, the situation could be different for Duterte...very different. For starters, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is seeking a full probe into the country's drug war killings that go way back to when Duterte was mayor of Davao City. According to Human Rights Watch, their counterparts in the Philippines say the number of these extrajudicial killings (EKG) could be as high as 27,000. The ICC thus sees these acts as "crimes against humanity." Aside from the ICC, Duterte has foes such as former Senator Antonio Trillanes, who continues to accuse Duterte and his cohorts of corruption. In 2017, Trillanes accused the president of holding secret bank accounts that contained more than 2 billion pesos ($41 million), a charge that was never proven nor disproven since Duterte refused to make his account balance public. Lately, Duterte created a rift within his own political party, PDP-Laban, by having it endorse his daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, as its presidential standard-bearer in 2022. Such endorsement goes against the party's by-laws as she belongs to a different political party. But for Duterte, having a trusted family member run for president will allow him to run for the vice presidency and thus continue to hold the reins of power behind the scenes. PDP-Laban leaders like boxing legend Sen. Manny Pacquiao and former senator Koko Pimentel, both with lofty political ambitions themselves, now stand in Duterte's way and may cause a split in the party. Duterte still has an ace up his sleeve. He can play the China card and ask President Xi Jinping for help. This might get Beijing's troll army to flood traditional and online media with fake news to sway the electorate in Duterte's favor. The Philippine military, however, remains apprehensive of close ties with Beijing and will likely prevent that from happening. Given his options, Duterte might never have a post-presidency retirement like Aquino had. He stepped on too many toes and made too many enemies to be afforded a quiet, peaceful retirement. And if Duterte's past five years in office are any indication of what is to come, we can expect more twists and turns that will keep us all glued to our video screens. Published 7/3/2021