iven the way authoritarian countries like China and Russia involve themselves in the democratic elections of other nations, it would be naive for Filipinos to think that China will not try to influence the outcome of the 2022 presidential elections.

Just as Russia is said to have influenced the 2016 U.S. elections to favor Donald Trump, China will want our most pro-Beijing candidate in Malacañang. So, can China make that happen?

For starters, the Philippines is ripe for social media manipulation. Thanks to the widespread use of smartphones and apps like Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram, false information and rumors now spread like wildfire across the population. And given the Filipino's penchant for conspiracy theories, many tend to believe what they read on social media.

For the legions of troll-farm workers typing away in secret locations (each with an army of electronic "bots" at their disposal), Pinoys are probably seen as gullible and easily swayed. Fake stories are spread far and wide that they eventually become "true" stories.

In addition, because the Philippines has had no external adversaries for decades, secure networks for government and military use are at best haphazardly implemented. Remember when former President Gloria Arroyo wanted Chinese telecom giant ZTE, to construct a national broadband network for all government voice and data communications across the archipelago. If you're glad that it never happened, you have whistleblower Rodolfo "Jun" Lozada, Jr. and a handful of brave souls to thank.

Nevertheless, it appears that China now has the capability to listen in or view most of the country's public, private, and military communications. This explains how China could tell President Rodrigo Duterte that they would warn him if there were any plans to remove him from office. Duterte even boasted such in May 2018 when he said that Chinese President Xi Jinping told him "we will not allow you to be taken out from your office."

So, given China's ability to sense the pulse of Philippine voters, and given the significant resources it has at its disposal, who will be China's choice for Philippine president in 2022?

Vice President Leni Reboredo likely be will be low on China's list. She has clearly stated that China must recognize the 2016 arbitral ruling regarding the West Philippine Sea (WPS). This sine qua non is a likely non-starter for China since it thinks it owns most of the South China Sea.

Boxing legend Manny Pacquiao takes a similar stance towards China. He does not want a war but says Filipinos should protect their country and not allow other countries to trample on their rights. Pacquiao would be low on China's list as well.

Mayor Isko Moreno appears to be a clear "no go" for China. He told Reuters that he would expel the Chinese occupying Philippine territory in the WPS. Moreno says he's open to joint exploration with China so long as the Philippines is in charge in areas that it owns.

Senator Panfilo Lacson says he'll also work with China on joint explorations, but on a 60-40 sharing basis, with the Philippines getting the larger share. Lacson also wants to call on other nations to pressure the Chinese to recognize the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling.

Labor leader Leody de Guzman has for years blamed China's aggressiveness towards the Philippines squarely on the Duterte administration's pandering and subservient attitude. Rather than build up the military, de Guzman favors creating a coalition of countries to get China to abide by international rules.

Former Senator Bongbong Marcos appears to be the sole holdout among the group. Journalist Raisa Robles describes him as "overtly pro-China." She sees his actions as calculated. Marcos is the frontrunner in the race, and if he reveals his pro-China stance, he will drop in the polls, given the strong anti-China sentiment among Filipinos. This might be the reason Marcos refuses to participate in broadcast events with other candidates.

Like Duterte in 2016, there is a media drumbeat that Marcos is way ahead in the polls, along with the insinuation that he is now too difficult to surpass. Does all this sound familiar?

It also appears that Marcos' campaign "handlers" have learned from the mistakes of the past. Unlike Duterte's now ludicrous statement about jetskiing to the Spratly islands, Marcos avoids making any anti-China comment whatsoever.

Although it might seem obvious to most, we leave it up to our readers to decide which presidential candidate China is rooting for. One thing is for sure: The results of the upcoming election will have a far-reaching, and long-lasting, effect on our country, the region, and the entire world. Vote wisely.

Published 2/10/2022