he whole world is watching. How democracies respond to Russian President Vladimir Putin's attack on Ukraine will be analyzed and reanalyzed by rogue nations that harbor similar intentions on their neighbors. How far are liberal democracies are willing to go to stop an autocracy from imposing its will on a weaker neighbor?

For the most part, economic sanctions don't appear to work. They didn't work on Cuba, North Korea, Syria, Iran, or even Russia when it annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014. So why do Western leaders like U.S. President Joe Biden continue to rely on such sanctions? Probably because they're easy to implement. Although they are for the most part ineffective, imposing economic sanctions gives the appearance that Western leaders are doing something.

Sadly, even imposing the more painful sanctions like declaring a "no-fly-zone" over Ukraine, or kicking ALL Russian banks out of the SWIFT banking system, appears to be off-limits for overly cautious septuagenarian leaders like Biden. Such leaders are no match to imperious autocrats long accustomed to crushing anyone who stands in their way.

We do not wish to diminish the heart-wrenching events visited on Ukrainians who are now bravely fighting to keep their country independent. We simply want to stress the point that the whole world is watching. Xi Jinping of China is watching, Kim Jung Un of North Korea is watching, Min Aung Hlaing of Myanmar is watching. So are the scores of tyrants and future tyrants who will not hesitate to use force to get their way.

This does not bode well for democracies like Taiwan, South Korea, or the Philippines. China has been illegally occupying many of our reefs and shoals for a decade. And with their discredited nine-dash-line, they also claim thousands of square kilometers of our resource-rich exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

Unlike Ukraine, the Philippines has a Mutual Defense Agreement with the United States. In other words, America has a treaty obligation to come to our defense, the same way we sent troops to Korea and then Vietnam to fight alongside American servicemen.

However, of concern is the perception—shared by many across the globe—that America has changed. The "can do" spirit that catapulted the allies to victory during World War II is nothing more than a distant memory. Americans have grown soft. Many could not even tolerate the minor inconvenience of wearing a facemask at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. How can one expect them to travel halfway 'round the world to defend a little-known treaty ally?

Like Ukraine, countries that are in the cross-hairs of tyrants must be prepared to go it alone. Help from the West will likely be "too little too late" to make a difference anyway. Countries like Taiwan and the Philippines should start spending a larger share of their GDP on defense. They may not win the war, but they can make it extremely costly for their adversary.

Sadly, this might be the new normal in the 21st century. Liberal democracy appears to be in retreat while countries ruled by tyrants and autocrats increase in numbers. Democracy can still triumph though, but it will need the boldness and leadership that, at present, is still missing.

The world is watching. How the American-led liberal democracies respond to this crisis will determine what everyone's next move will be.

Published 2/27/2022