n their 2016 presidential election, Americans elected Donald Trump as their 45th president. But many believe that election meddling by the Russians is what tipped the balance in Trump's favor, and away from Hillary Clinton—his Democratic opponent.

According to Time Magazine, the Russians "went all out" for Trump. A 2019 article by Abigale Abrams noted that "over the course of the election, a wide-ranging group of Russians probed state voter databases for insecurities; hacked the Hillary Clinton campaign, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic National Committee ... released politically damaging information on the internet; spread propaganda on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram; staged rallies in Florida and Pennsylvania," and so on.

The fact that Trump, a political neophyte, bested a large field of seasoned Republican rivals spoke to the effectiveness of the Kremlin-led endeavor. And while Russia has made no secret of its cyber capabilities, China has its army of cyber warriors who can go toe-to-toe with their Russian counterparts.

In fact, some Filipinos believe that Duterte won the presidency in 2016 due to election interference by Beijing. If that is true, then their cyber efforts have been amply rewarded by Duterte's friendly ties with Beijing and his refusal to even mention the Arbitral Tribunal's unanimous ruling that tossed out China's nine-dash-line claim in the South China Sea.

The Philippines will again have a presidential election and many believe that China will again use its extensive cyber capabilities to sow disinformation to sway voter sentiment in favor of its chosen candidate. That Candidate appears to be Bongbong Marcos.

The former senator is the front runner with a significant lead over his rivals. And according to The Philippine Daily Inquirer, he has been parroting Duterte's old talking point that the country "can’t afford to go to war with the Asian giant," and that "the Philippines will lose in no time should war break out."

Marcos also indicated that like Duterte, the Philippines and China should settle their issues bilaterally—Beijing's preferred method especially when dealing with smaller, weaker nations like the Philippines. In a January 2022 article in The Diplomat, Marcos argued that a bilateral agreement is the only way to settle issues with China. “I think we can come to an agreement. As a matter of fact, people from the Chinese embassy are my friends, we have been talking about that.”.

To Beijing's likely delight, Marcos also said he plans to shun American help in dealing with China. He points out that “the problem is between China and us. If Americans come in, it is bound to fail.”

Having planted himself squarely in China's corner, even Duterte, who wanted his daughter Sara to run for president, has stayed uncharacteristically silent on Marcos' presidential bid. Duterte alluded to a cocaine-snorting, lazy candidate he left unnamed early on, but even those criticisms have stopped.

Can the Philippines remain a free and democratic country aligned with the liberal democracies of the West? Or might it gravitate towards authoritarian countries and eventually become one itself? We might have our answer soon after the May election.

Published 3/24/2022