wo weeks ago, former Philippine president and current Batasan representative Gloria Macapagal Arroyo faced a significant demotion from Senior Deputy Speaker to Deputy Speaker, a position she now shares with nine other House colleagues. This unexpected development has raised questions about the future of Arroyo's political career, especially considering the shifting alliances and geopolitical landscape under President Bongbong Marcos. This article explores the potential factors contributing to Arroyo's diminishing political influence and analyzes her controversial actions during her tenure as president.

Shifting Alliances

Since assuming the presidency in May 2022, President Marcos has initiated a seismic shift in the country's alliances, moving away from China and towards the United States and its Western allies. Unlike his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, who leaned towards China, Marcos has taken steps to strengthen ties with America. This realignment is believed to have cast a negative light on Arroyo due to her actions as president.

Arroyo's decision-making during her presidency has drawn attention and scrutiny, potentially damaging her reputation with the new alliance partner, the United States. One significant concern revolves around the Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking (JMSU), Arroyo's highly secretive project allowing China to survey parts of the Philippine continental shelf without proper oversight. Despite her efforts to keep it off the record, intelligence communities likely kept dossiers on the JMSU. The project's significant anomalies came to light after the late Barry Wain a researcher with the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore published a highly critical article in the Far Eastern Economic Review in 2008. The JMSU was quietly scrapped shortly after Wain's article was published, and in January of this year, the Philippine Supreme Court declared that the JMSU was in fact unconstitutional.

Lack of Transparency

Another controversy was the National Broadband Network corruption scandal, known as the NBN-ZTE deal, where Arroyo allegedly planned to hand over the development and maintenance of a new government communication system to the Chinese telecommunications firm ZTE. The revelations included accusations of impropriety and billion-peso kickbacks and included photographic evidence of a secret trip Arroyo took to ZTE's corporate golf course in China to play a round of golf. These instances of alleged malfeasance became public knowledge only after whistleblowers exposed the issues, leading yet again to the abandonment of the project.

Throughout her political career, Arroyo has displayed a concerning affinity towards China, while lacking transparency about her motivations and intentions. Her recent visit to China in April, accompanied by a delegation to celebrate her birthday, further raised eyebrows. Given the United States and its Western allies' commitment to fortifying the Philippines with increased military resources to help maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific, a high-ranking Filipino politician with a history of giving China access to sensitive data and resources can pose significant problems.

Implications for Arroyo's Political Future

Considering the ongoing shift in alliances and the commitment of the Marcos administration to strengthen ties with the West, Gloria Arroyo's political prospects appear to be dwindling. Her track record of controversial actions, lack of transparency, and perceived alignment with China undermines her credibility and raises concerns about her ability to contribute to the country's interests in the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Furthermore, as the Philippines seeks to assert its sovereignty in the South China Sea, where territorial disputes with China persist, politicians like Arroyo, who have shown deference towards China in the past, may find it increasingly challenging to maintain relevance. The United States and its allies are actively promoting a united front against Chinese expansionism, and any perceived association with China could be detrimental to one's political standing.

Arroyo's diminishing influence within the Lower House, evident from her recent demotion, reflects a broader trend of waning support and relevance. The seismic shift in alliances and the growing emphasis on aligning with Western partners suggest that Arroyo's political career may face significant headwinds going forward.

Conclusion

Gloria Arroyo's political career is at a critical juncture. The shift in alliances and the evolving geopolitical landscape, combined with her controversial actions and perceived alignment with China, have cast doubt on her future. To salvage her political standing, Arroyo must prioritize transparency, accountability, and a realignment with the country's strategic interests. Whether she can successfully navigate these challenges remains to be seen, but the path ahead requires a comprehensive reassessment and a proactive approach to regain public trust and credibility in the new political landscape.

Published 5/30/2023