he shifting geopolitical landscape raises a crucial question for the Philippines: Can it still rely on the United States for protection against an increasingly assertive China? With former U.S. President Donald Trump having signaled a pivot away from Ukraine and towards a more accommodating stance with Russia, concerns have emerged about whether Washington’s commitment to defending long-time allies, including the Philippines, remains iron-clad.

The Growing Threat from China

China's aggressive expansion in the West Philippine Sea continues to challenge Philippine sovereignty. Its militarization of artificial islands, harassment of Filipino fishermen, and incursions into Philippine waters demonstrate a boldness that tests the limits of international law and regional stability. While the Philippines has historically relied on the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the U.S. as a security guarantee, the effectiveness of this alliance is increasingly uncertain amid evolving U.S. foreign policy priorities.

Diversifying Strategic Partnerships

Given these uncertainties, the Philippines must actively pursue stronger defense and security partnerships with other democratic nations. Strengthening military ties with regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India offers alternative sources of military aid, training, and intelligence sharing. Expanding cooperation with Canada and the European Union can also enhance security through joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and arms trade agreements.

Japan and Australia, in particular, have demonstrated a growing willingness to counterbalance China’s aggressive maneuvers. Japan has provided defense assistance and patrol vessels to the Philippines, while Australia has strengthened its defense ties through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Program. India, with its robust military-industrial complex, can also play a critical role in supplying defense technology and expertise.

Strengthening the Philippine Armed Forces

Beyond alliances, the Philippines must take concrete steps to bolster its own military capabilities. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) requires a comprehensive modernization strategy focused on acquiring advanced naval and aerial defense systems, including missile batteries, submarines, and multi-role fighter jets. Investing in a robust surveillance and early-warning system is also critical to countering potential incursions into Philippine territorial waters.

The development of a homegrown defense industry is equally essential. The Philippines should establish partnerships with global arms manufacturers to enhance local production capabilities. Countries like South Korea and India, which have successfully built their own domestic arms industries, provide valuable models for how the Philippines can develop self-sufficiency in military hardware production.

The Urgency of Action

Time is of the essence. With Washington showing signs of strategic recalibration, the Philippines cannot afford complacency. The possibility of China following Russia’s example—using force to annex territory—looms large, particularly regarding Taiwan. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would directly impact Philippine security, given the geographical proximity and potential refugee and military spillover effects.

Conclusion

The Philippines must adopt a multi-faceted approach to securing its sovereignty. While the U.S. remains a vital security partner, dependence on a single ally is no longer viable. Strengthening military ties with other democratic nations, rapidly modernizing the AFP, and developing a self-reliant defense industry are critical steps toward ensuring national security. A well-equipped military, backed by a network of reliable allies, will serve as a formidable deterrent against China's continued aggression in the region. The time to act is now.

Published 3/8/2025